Housing prices 2026 and the supply gap — where the Polish market is heading
The primary market entered 2026 in a state not seen in a decade: transaction prices in the largest cities are flat or retreating, while at the same time the supply side is quietly shrinking. This combination — cool demand today, falling housing production for tomorrow — is currently the most important tension in the development market.
Prices: stabilisation in the metropolises, records in the provinces
In the first quarter of 2026 the average transaction price of a new dwelling across the seven largest markets stood at PLN 14,245/sqm, and in Warsaw PLN 16,475/sqm. In the largest agglomerations transaction prices are flat or edging down. It is worth separating two measures: these are transaction prices — asking prices run higher (in the second quarter of 2026 the average asking price for new dwellings in the 7 cities exceeded PLN 16,000/sqm). The gap between the asking and transaction price is today the room for negotiation. Mid-sized cities give the opposite picture — Bydgoszcz around +21% y/y, Zielona Góra over +20% y/y (to be verified).
Demand: back to normal, without fuel from subsidies
Demand has returned to a moderate level, driven by rising wages and improving creditworthiness rather than government programmes. The "Safe Loan 2%" scheme has been suspended since January 2024, and "Loan for a Start" has been withdrawn. Interest rates have become the driver — 2025 saw six cuts, which is gradually reviving lending. The 2026 market is therefore sensitive above all to the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP).
Supply: production of future housing is falling
This is where the heart of the gap lies. In 2025, 208,800 dwellings were completed (developers: 134,100, +7.6% y/y) — but that is the result of projects begun years earlier. The leading indicators are slowing: building permits at 266,400 (-8.7% y/y), housing starts at 212,400 (-9.2% y/y), and developers themselves started 13.2% fewer homes in January–July 2025. The bank of housing under construction (854,700 at the end of July) is still growing, but the stream feeding it is narrowing — with demand recovering, this risks a return of price pressure in 12–24 months.
Land: the quiet brake on supply
In 2025 the average increase in plot prices reached around 8% (up to 12% in large cities). The most expensive remain Warsaw, Gdańsk and Kraków. The share of land value in the cost of producing a dwelling is estimated at 14.6–23.5%. The shrinking supply of sites and rising plot prices are a cost passed on to the buyer.
Forecasts: stabilisation with a risk of rebound
The consensus for 2026 is cautiously optimistic — JLL points to sales higher than a year earlier and prices rising at a rate close to inflation; CBRE speaks of stabilisation amid a wide range of offers. Some analysts do not rule out a pace of as much as 10% a year in 2026–2027 — provided interest rates keep falling and supply does not recover.
What this means
For a premium developer, 2026 is a two-speed market with a more price-sensitive customer. The buyer negotiates and has a wide choice of offers. At the same time, shrinking production and expensive land are laying the foundation for the next wave of increases. The advantage will go to whoever closes sales more effectively with a mature customer — through consistent, up-to-date materials and a transparent process.
Editorial material by Method Press based on public industry sources, market data and legal acts. Accurate as at the time of publication — data, regulations and deadlines may change.